THE ANSWER TO: WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION NEEDED TO AWAKEN FOR CHANGE?
- Mark Playne
- Jul 19
- 2 min read
Before watching the video below the poll, please take a guess, answering the poll question here:
What percentage of a population needs to actively participate in a movement to guarantee its success?
VIDEO EXPLAINING THE ANSWER
The 3.5% rule
The 3.5% rule most commonly refers to political scientist Erica Chenoweth's groundbreaking research on civil resistance movements.
Through analysis of hundreds of resistance campaigns from 1900 to 2006, Chenoweth discovered that nonviolent movements have never failed when they've achieved the active participation of just 3.5% of the population.
This finding emerged from Chenoweth's collaboration with Maria Stephan, examining both violent and nonviolent resistance movements. They found that nonviolent campaigns were twice as likely to succeed as violent ones, and crucially, that no nonviolent campaign had failed once it reached that 3.5% threshold of active participation.
The key aspects of this rule include:
Active vs Passive Support: The 3.5% refers to people actively participating—attending protests, strikes, or civil disobedience—not merely supporting the cause. The broader base of passive supporters is typically much larger.
Sustained Participation: The participation needs to be sustained over time, not just a single event or demonstration.
Nonviolent Methods: The rule specifically applies to nonviolent resistance, including protests, strikes, boycotts, and civil disobedience.
Examples of 3.5 % rule
Here are the top ten examples commonly cited as reaching or exceeding the 3.5% threshold:
1. Iranian Revolution (1977-1979) Millions participated in sustained protests against the Shah's regime. Peak demonstrations involved an estimated 2-3 million people from a population of 35 million.
2. Philippine People Power Revolution (1986) Massive demonstrations in Manila against Ferdinand Marcos, with over 2 million participants from a population of 56 million.
3. East German Peaceful Revolution (1989) Monday demonstrations in Leipzig and other cities, culminating in over 500,000 protesters from a population of 16 million.
4. Serbian Bulldozer Revolution (2000) Sustained protests against Milošević involving approximately 300,000-500,000 people from 7.5 million population.
5. Rose Revolution, Georgia (2003) Mass demonstrations in Tbilisi with over 100,000 sustained participants from a population of 4.7 million.
6. Orange Revolution, Ukraine (2004) Peak participation of over 1 million in Kyiv alone, with nationwide involvement from 48 million population.
7. Cedar Revolution, Lebanon (2005) Over 150,000 consistent protesters demanding Syrian withdrawal from a population of 4 million.
8. Velvet Revolution, Czechoslovakia (1989) Mass demonstrations with peak participation exceeding 500,000 from 15.6 million population.
9. Indian Independence Movement (1920s-1940s) Salt March and sustained civil disobedience involving millions from British India's vast population.
10. Sudanese Revolution (2018-2019) Sustained protests involving hundreds of thousands from Sudan's 43 million population, leading to Bashir's removal.
These movements all achieved sustained, active participation well above the 3.5% threshold and succeeded in their primary objectives.
Interesting and I was going to put 3.5% before plumping for 15%. There needs to be another thought on the "example" revolutions listed: they were all financed by nepharious backers like Soros, CIA etc... ie. money no object.
At the beginning of C****d over 1 million of us marched in London. Result - nothing. maybe if we had all stayed in London it would have been different
There were about 1 million people who marched on Canberra during Covid, people who didn't like the government's take on it all. 1 million out of about 25 million in Australia. 4% of the population. But nothing much changed from that march. Even the MSM dismissed it as about 10,000 people! Now, 3.5% sounds great, but a march/rally/demonstration is one thing. Meaningful change is another thing. To combat the craziness in the world today, I think we need loads more than 3.5% of people on our side!
On a more mundane level, that was the threshold that pushed American soda to use kosher salt in all products, rather than create a separate kosher line.
Pythagoras